Elections will do little to alter policy on contentious international issuesįor once the polls were right.
There are signs that things may change in 2020. So the dominant strategy for Europe may be to kick the can down the road, and wait this president out. These elections did not settle this debate, but they did show that Americans are no longer complacent – voter turnout was at record levels for midterm elections and many key issues that mobilized Americans like immigration and the economy have global implications.
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Those more sanguine have assumed that a series of idiosyncratic factors landed Trump in the White House, and that America’s attacks on internationalism would pass. Today, America remains the most unequal country in the world.įor two years, Europeans have debated America’s new role as an international disruptor. That Trump’s campaign strategy played on a fear of immigration, not economic success, is partly driven by the reality that many ordinary Americans see tax cuts as primarily benefiting wealthy Americans. Moderate and progressive Democrats will continue to battle over the party’s agenda.įor the Republican Party, there could be a moment to consider whether their very close attachment to Trump’s agenda and his unconventional style may have muted gains which could have been stronger given robust economic growth, job creation and rising hourly wages. A record number of over 100 women have been elected to the House of Representatives, including the first openly gay Native American woman. If this happens, trade will become an important issue in the 2020 presidential elections.īut the second and more pervasive area to watch will continue to be America’s culture wars. Here, division runs deeper than even the number of Republicans and Democrats in the House or Senate suggest. Americans may well experience a deepening trade war and suffer its costs very differently. But it will also be played out across America. Some of this division will now be given actual political expression in Congress.
This division is likely to infect US politics for the next two years. The 2018 US midterm elections were a referendum on President Trump and in the aftermath, only one truth is crystal clear. America is divided. Americans have voted against Trump, and Americans have voted for Trump.
Americans are divided – but no longer complacent
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